Dear Partner,
Nothing makes us more hopeful going into 2025 than the bold action we are seeing across Houston schools this year. We saw promising growth in reading achievement and schools leading inspiring and innovative programs to meet the needs of every child in every neighborhood.
Our new research has shed light on a critical area for improvement for Houston. This year, Good Reason Houston embarked on new research examining student-level data to track postsecondary credential and living wage attainment. These early findings suggest our students aren’t being fully prepared for the opportunities they deserve after they graduate high school.
Only 27% of Houston graduates go on to complete a postsecondary degree or credential within 6 years. Only 20% earn a living wage.
As we head into 2025, we’re doubling down on two key areas tied to postsecondary success: math achievement and advanced coursework. This ConnectEd dives into trends in Algebra I test-takers and its link to future success – a sneak peek of our full Postsecondary Indicators Report coming in January.
If you have questions or want to share your thoughts, feel free to reach out to us at info@goodreasonhouston.org, or connect with us on social media using #HTXConnectEd.
Sincerely,
Good Reason Houston’s Research and Data Team
The Gist:
Below are key takeaways from this month’s Houston ConnectEd.
- Taking Algebra I in 8th grade is linked to significantly greater rates of postsecondary completion and living wage attainment, even after taking into account race, income, and language.
- SB 2124 requires all districts to automatically enroll students in an advanced math pathway based on their 5th grade math STAAR performance. This requirement is intended to reduce disparities in access to Algebra I in middle school.
- Across Houston, the number of students taking Algebra I in 8th grade has declined and has yet to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. As districts adopt SB 2124, districts need to be laser-focused on increasing students’ preparation for advanced math pathways and creating systems to automatically enroll students based on their demonstrated readiness.
Keep reading for a comprehensive perspective on Houston public education data.
Algebra I in 8th Grade is a Strong Predictor of Postsecondary Success
Ample national research has found a link between taking Algebra I in 8th grade and postsecondary outcomes. The earlier a student completes Algebra I, the more opportunities they have to complete higher-level math courses like pre-calculus and calculus. These courses are common prerequisites for many colleges and universities.
As part of Good Reason Houston’s Postsecondary Research Initiative, we used student-level data to understand the link between middle and high school coursework and postsecondary outcomes for Houston students.
We found that taking Algebra in 8th grade is associated with a 14% point increase in the likelihood of completing a postsecondary degree and a 9% point increase in the likelihood of obtaining a living wage six years beyond high school.
Our model accounted for common factors that are associated with postsecondary outcomes such as race, income, and language. In other words, there is strong evidence that taking Algebra in 8th grade matters for all students.
Senate Bill 2124 aims to increase early access for all students to advanced coursework
The Texas legislature passed a new law in 2023 that requires districts to automatically enroll students in Algebra I in 8th grade if they score in the top 40% of test-takers on the 5th grade STAAR Math. The new law is to take effect as soon as practicable, allowing for a phase-in of the new criteria. Prior to the law, districts had varying criteria and processes to determine readiness and enroll eligible middle school students in the course.
Good Reason Houston, along with several statewide peer organizations like E3 Alliance, Texas 2036 and Commit Partnership, submitted testimony in support of this law. We believe that this law will address gaps in access to advanced coursework and put more students on the path to postsecondary success.
Pandemic continues to impact advanced math course-taking, especially in middle school
Our analysis looked at the number of students who took the Algebra STAAR End of Course (EOC) exam. All students enrolled in Algebra I also complete the exam and this is the most current proxy for course enrollment. Across the 11 independent school districts in our region, we saw a net decline of approximately 4,100 students taking the exam, a 7% decline since 2023. High school exam completion has returned to 2019 levels, an expected trend as high school students who needed to retake the exam as a result of pandemic-related learning disruptions diminish. In middle schools, however, we saw a concerning decline in the number of students taking Algebra I in middle school. As districts ramp up to full implementation of SB2124 over the next few years, we hope to see that number grow over time.
High School Test-Takers: Our analysis of Algebra I test-takers showed a dip in 2021 during the pandemic which has since rebounded. The surge in high school test-takers in 2022 and 2023 was expected for two reasons. First, the exam was not administered during the pandemic and students needed to take the exam in later years to fulfill graduation requirements. Second, the pandemic’s disruptions to in-person learning likely contributed to learning losses that delayed taking higher-level math courses.
Middle School Test-Takers: On the other hand, middle school Algebra I test-takers dropped sharply in 2024, declining by nearly 1,000 students region-wide after steady growth from 2019–2023. Instead of increasing access as intended by the new law, many districts seem to be scaling back advanced math opportunities, likely due to lower math achievement in earlier grades leaving fewer 8th graders ready for Algebra I.
Notable Exceptions: Some districts are bucking the trend by growing the number of middle schoolers taking Algebra I:
- Spring Branch ISD: 5% increase since 2023 and 120% since 2019.
- Sheldon ISD: 30% increase since 2023 and 120% since 2019.
- Aldine ISD: 14% increase since 2023 and 124% since 2019, along with a 2-point gain in Meets and Masters rates.
This data shows that passing SB 2124 was just the start. To achieve equitable enrollment in advanced math, we must support districts in scaling efforts across campuses and urgently address instructional gaps in elementary and middle schools.
Data in the News
Here are some of the education data stories we’ve been keeping our eye on over the past few weeks.
- Spring ISD Offers Pre-K for 3-year olds | Houston Landing: Despite budget and space constraints, Spring ISD is taking bold action to offer tuition-free pre-K to 3-year old students. While the district currently has limited spots and a large waitlist, the district hopes to expand the offering for more families. Superintendent Hinojosa points to early research findings that demonstrate the positive impact of pre-K 3 on academic skills.
- US Students Are Falling Behind in Math and Science | The 74 Million: Recent results from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study showed that US students continue to fall behind after the pandemic. US students’ test performance dropped to the lowest levels since 1995 and erased gains made in 2015-2019. The results also revealed stark equity gaps between the highest and lowest performing student groups, a gap that has grown for all grades and subjects tested.
- New FAFSA Data a Silver Lining From Complicated 2024 Process | Washington Post: The new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) opened this past week. Last year’s form, delayed by months and riddled with technical glitches, led to a significant drop in student completions (an 8.8% point decline as of June according to the Texas Tribune). The Education Department has since committed to resolving the glitches and also cites promising data that more students have been approved for a Pell Grant than in prior years. This increased access is due to a revamped funding formula.
