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Progress Report: Key Education Trends Shaping the 2024-2025 School Year So Far

Picture of Meron Tekle

Meron Tekle

Managing Director, Insights

You may recall Good Reason Houston made predictions in August about the topics that will shape the 2024-2025 school year. Now halfway through the school year, we’ve seen some of those predictions materialize as expected, while others have surprised us. What stands out most is this: our progress reaffirms our belief in what’s possible for public education and underscores the urgency of continuing to act with purpose.
At the end of the year, we’ll revisit these predictions in full. For now, let’s take a closer look at where we stand.

Education Systems:

Pre-K will stay in the spotlight.
Did we get it right? Yep!
Pre-K Matters, but where are the dollars? This focus on pre-K has only intensified as the 89th Legislative session convenes, with the Senate Education Committee’s interim report highlighting pre-K as a priority. The Committee, along with other educational advocates, is pushing for an expansion of the Early Education Allotment that would allow pre-K students to generate weighted funding similar to students in kindergarten through 3rd grade.
➡️ Our Take: Pre-K is undeniably foundational to a child’s learning, and inadequate funding remains a sticking point. Advocates and policymakers must address quality, but must also fund pre-K in the way it requires to be truly effective. We need sustainable investment in pre-K to expand access and improve outcomes. 
Curriculum will remain a key focus.
Did we get it right? Kind of...
Curriculum Adoption: Progress Overshadowed. While the emphasis on state-provided instructional materials has grown—reflected in state laws and systems that incentivize adoption and investment in educator development—progress has been overshadowed by controversy surrounding the new Bluebonnet curriculum, particularly its elementary reading portion, which has been dubbed the “Bible curriculum.”
➡️ Our Take: A curriculum is only as strong as its implementation. While adoption is a critical first step, the current controversy has shifted attention away from what really matters: deliberate, intentional implementation that ensures proper understanding and buy-in. Realizing the full impact of high-quality materials requires not just access, but a shift in teacher and leader mindsets to support effective use.
Strengthening the educator workforce will be a top priority.
Did we get it right? Yep!
The Struggle for Educator Retention and Support. Teacher quality is a key predictor of student success, so strengthening the educator workforce remains a top priority. There’s growing focus on aligning teacher evaluations with performance-based rewards and developing strategic, sustainable staffing models. Efforts to bridge gaps between traditionally and alternatively trained teachers continue, with expanded ‘grow-your-own’ pipelines and states removing barriers to entering the profession.
➡️ Our Take: Developing and retaining high-quality teachers is crucial. Beyond filling vacancies, the focus must also be on creating environments where teachers are empowered to grow and lead. We can address both through policies such as incentives for teacher residency programs, for example, which provide training in a real classroom environment.
Math will take center stage.
Did we get it right? Yep!
Math Achievement Crisis Sparks Action. Concerns about poor performance have been validated by persistently low outcomes. This fall, the Texas State Board of Education made addressing math outcomes a top priority, with a renewed focus on math instruction. STEM school models have also become a focal point, as TEA invests in creating a STEM playbook and implementing tools, alongside growing STEM models through the School Action Fund grant. 
➡️ Our Take: The math crisis is real, and solving it requires a powerful combination of high-quality curriculum and meaningful teacher support. When teachers receive robust professional development aligned to excellent instructional materials, they can effectively implement these research-backed resources to meet students’ diverse needs.
School choice legislation will be significant in Ed policy.
Did we get it right? Yep!
The Tug-of-War Over School Choice. We anticipated that school choice would continue to dominate policy discussions, and this prediction has held true. The debate over private school choice programs and their potential impact on public education has become one of the year’s defining policy issues.
➡️ Our Take: While school choice policies continue to grow, the real challenge will be balancing these new options while ensuring that neighborhood public schools remain strong and equitable. Policymakers must prioritize continuing to uplift and amplify the needs of public schools to ensure that the 5.5 million students attending public school receive a quality educational experience.

Educators:

Educators will have to balance new practices with maintaining professional autonomies.
Did we get it right? Kind of...
Science of Learning: Don’t Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater. We predicted a shift back to more structured, fundamental approaches to instruction, and we’re seeing that now. However, some experts warn that an overcorrection may happen, especially with the emphasis on phonics in the “Science of Reading.” As new theories like the Science of Learning enter the conversation, there’s a risk of jumping on the next trend without fully understanding its impact. 
➡️ Our Take: Curriculum will constantly evolve, but the key is ensuring teachers are grounded in research-based instructional strategies and understand the science of how children learn. When educators grasp the theory behind a curriculum, they can make informed decisions about when and how to adapt it to better meet their students’ needs.
Artificial Intelligence's role in education will keep growing.
Did we get it right? Kind of...
Tech in Education: Promise Meets Reality. AI integration in education has accelerated, but not as quickly as expected. Schools are gradually adopting AI for administrative tasks and lesson planning. LAUSD’s high-profile AI implementation challenges have sparked important conversations about responsible adoption. Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to foundational tech, with Texas prioritizing online STAAR testing over AI. And while teachers are exploring AI’s potential to ease workloads, they are cautious about its ability to enhance, not disrupt, instruction. 
➡️ Our Take: The key to AI’s success in education is its careful, intentional adoption. Teachers must be given time and support to learn how AI can complement, rather than replace, their teaching. If educators understand the research behind the tools, they can confidently integrate them into their practice.
Educators will work to close learning gaps while keeping up with the curriculum.
Did we get it right? Kind of...
Turning an Ocean Liner. While the widespread adoption of High-Quality Instructional Materials has been lauded as a boon for improving average instruction, some at the national level have observed that shortcomings in implementing it may stem as much from inadequate teacher preparation as from gaps in student grade-level readiness. With data continuing to show that student math and reading scores are at historic lows, the big question remains: what more can we do for students for whom regular classroom instruction isn’t enough?
➡️ Our Take: Closing learning gaps requires both high-quality materials and well-prepared teachers. Educators must deeply understand the principles behind the curriculum and be equipped with the right tools to support students effectively.
As we reflect on the year so far, it’s clear that the predictions we made were more than forecasts—they were reflections of our hopes. Hopes for a stronger foundation in our education system, better support for educators, and a collective effort to meet the challenges our students face.
The work is far from over, but the path forward is clear. At the end of the school year, we’ll revisit these predictions, reflecting not only on how the landscape has shifted but also on the role we’ve played in driving progress. Guided by our hopes and grounded in our vision, we can continue shaping a future where every child in Houston has the opportunity to thrive.
Take a look at our initial 2024-25 forecast here.

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