In the debut episode of The Learning Curve Conversations, Good Reason Houston’s Managing Director of Insights, Meron Tekle, sat down with education policy researcher and founder of Read Not Guess, Chad Aldeman, to discuss the complexities of the teacher workforce. Their conversation unpacked the realities behind teacher shortages, retention challenges, and ways to modernize the profession. Here’s what we learned.
Are We Really Experiencing a Teacher Shortage?
If you’ve read the headlines, it might seem like public education is facing an unprecedented teacher shortage. However, Aldeman tells a more nuanced story. National data shows that while schools have been hiring more teachers in recent years, student enrollment has simultaneously declined. This means that the student-teacher ratio has actually decreased. So why does the perception of a shortage persist?
More positions were created, but there weren’t enough new teachers to fill them: Aldeman explains that the real issue is not a lack of teachers, but rather an imbalance in supply and demand. The federal COVID-19 relief funds (ESSER) allowed districts to hire aggressively, but the pipeline of new teachers had already been shrinking since its peak in 2011-2012.
Staffing allocations don’t always reflect classroom realities: In our discussion, we also touched on the fact that people listed as teachers aren’t always in front of a classroom in a traditional teaching sense. Some teachers are coded as classroom teachers but used in other positions on campuses and districts, further complicating the teacher shortage narrative.
Rural districts and high-need subjects struggle to attract and retain staff: Moreover, teacher shortages are not evenly distributed. While urban and suburban districts may be maintaining their workforce, rural districts and high-need subject areas—such as special education—aren’t.
Local data from Houston reflects these national trends. Houston ISD’s student enrollment has declined by 15% in recent years, yet its teacher workforce has actually grown by 2%.
The ‘Teacher Exodus’ Narrative—Fact or Fiction?
Another common concern is that teachers are leaving the profession in droves, particularly after the pandemic.
Teacher turnover rates have been stable over time: Aldeman acknowledges that turnover rates did rise after COVID-19, with Texas reaching a peak of 13.7% teacher turnover in 2022. However, he notes that this level of turnover is not abnormal when compared to other professional fields, such as nursing and accounting. In fact, teacher turnover rates have been fairly stable over the long term.
Early-career teacher attrition remains a concern: Many new teachers leave within the first five years, highlighting the need for better early-career support and retention strategies. Rather than focusing on overall retention, Aldeman suggests prioritizing differential retention—ensuring that the best teachers, particularly those in hard-to-staff roles, stay in the profession.
How Do We Improve Teacher Retention?
If turnover is inevitable, how do we ensure that schools retain their best educators? Aldeman outlines several key strategies:
Competitive Compensation: While starting salaries for teachers have risen significantly in the past decade (with Houston districts now offering salaries in the $60,000 range), salary increases alone are not enough. Districts should consider additional incentives for teachers in high-need areas like special education and bilingual education.
Strategic Staffing Models: Many school systems treat all teachers as interchangeable, rewarding them based on years of experience and degrees rather than effectiveness. Aldeman argues for differentiated pay structures that recognize teachers’ contributions to student outcomes and leadership roles.
Mentorship and Growth Opportunities: The current model often forces teachers to leave the classroom in order to advance their careers. Instead, Aldeman advocates for structured mentorship programs where veteran teachers can take on leadership roles while remaining in the classroom. Programs like Opportunity Culture and strategic staffing models offer a promising alternative to traditional teacher pathways.
Rethinking the Teaching Profession
Aldeman suggests a fundamental shift in how we think about the teaching profession. Rather than assuming that all teachers will stay for decades, districts should design compensation and support structures that accommodate a more mobile workforce. That could mean frontloading compensation rather than relying on long-term pension benefits, offering performance-based incentives, and restructuring schools to foster more collaboration among educators.
One particularly promising model is team-based teaching, where groups of educators share responsibility for a cohort of students. This approach provides new teachers with more support, increases collaboration, and ensures that students benefit from the expertise of veteran educators. It also reduces burnout by allowing teachers to share the workload, rather than working in isolation.
Looking Ahead
Education leaders must rethink traditional approaches to teacher hiring, retention, and career development to address ongoing challenges and embrace new opportunities. The challenges are real, but so are the opportunities for innovation.
For more insights from Chad Aldeman, check out his work at Read Not Guess. Stay tuned for the next episode of The Learning Curve Conversations, where we continue exploring the most pressing issues in public education. Sign up for The Learning Curve to receive updates on upcoming episodes and other education insights.
