Dear Partner,
Our research findings are clear: Students who take rigorous courses in high school are much more likely to earn a living wage six years after graduation. Our deep dive into the latest College, Career, and Military Readiness (CCMR) data from the Texas Education Agency now questions if we’re giving students enough access to these rigorous opportunities.
We took a closer look at how our schools and districts are trending when it comes to preparing students for life beyond high school graduation. The numbers were surprising:
The overall CCMR rate jumped by 9 percentage points in a single year, but gains were smaller for emergent bilingual and Black students.
The biggest increases came from indicators that are not the most comprehensive or rigorous.
Indicators tied to advanced coursework – like passing AP or IB exams – have declined over the past five years, even though these are strong predictors of earning a living wage.
The exciting jump in overall scores masks a deeper issue. More students may be “checking the box,” to meet basic readiness benchmarks, but too few students are accessing the rigorous experiences that truly set them up to earn a living wage after graduation. If we want every child in every neighborhood to have a future full of choices and opportunity, we have to raise the bar.
If you have questions or want to share your thoughts, feel free to reach out to us at info@goodreasonhouston.org, reply to this email, or connect with us on social media using #HTXConnectEd.
Sincerely,
The Gist:
Below are key takeaways from this month’s Houston ConnectEd.
The CCMR rate jumped by 9 percentage points in a single year, from 65% for the class of 2022 to 74% for the class of 2023. Gains were smaller for emergent bilingual and Black students.
CCMR indicators that grew the most since 2019 included industry based certifications (up 22 percentage points) and college prep courses (up 12 percentage points). These are often the least comprehensive and rigorous readiness indicators. Contrarily, indicators that require mastery of college-level content or coursework have declined since 2019, including passing AP or IB exams (down 2 percentage points) or scoring above criterion on SAT/ACT (down 4 percentage points) or Texas Success Initiative Assessment (TSIA) (down 5 percentage points)
Our research shows that when schools challenge students with tougher classes and give more kids an opportunity to take them, students are more prepared to succeed in college and future careers. Policies must be implemented to ensure students have access to these courses.
Keep reading for a comprehensive perspective on Houston public education data.
Overall CCMR Rates Growing, But Equity Gaps Persist
Across Houston, 74% of students are considered College, Career, and Military Ready (CCMR) by the Texas Education Agency. Compared to the region’s 74% CCMR rate, Black students and emergent bilingual (EB) students lagged behind, at 64% and 65%, respectively. We see a sizable 19% point gap between Black and white students that has grown since 2019.
Students meet this standard by achieving one of many criteria. These include:
College Readiness: Scoring above a college-ready threshold on the SAT, ACT, or TSIA, earning college credit through AP/IB exams or dual credit courses, or obtaining an associate degree.
- Career or Military Readiness: Enlisting in the military or earning an industry-based certification (IBC) through Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs.
The new CCMR data reflects the Class of 2023, a graduating class that experienced widespread pandemic-related school closures during their freshman and sophomore years. We’re keeping a close eye on how students are doing in school after the pandemic because unfinished learning can make it harder for them to be ready for college and careers. To better understand this, we examine the set of CCMR criteria that are improving, staying the same, or getting worse.
Highest Growth Indicators Are Also The Lowest Bars for Rigor
Not all college and career readiness measures are equally challenging or helpful for future success. We know from our research that students who earn dual credits, pass AP or IB exams, and get strong scores on the SAT, ACT, and TSIA are better prepared for college and career success. Yet fewer students have been reaching these goals in recent years, which means they might not be as prepared for college and careers as they could be.
In terms of career readiness, we’ve seen evidence that professional certifications granted by local colleges (denoted above as Certificate I/II) are linked to higher wages in in-demand industries. These include certificates for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration, business administration, and manufacturing technology. According to our report, Houston graduates who earned professional certifications earned, on average, $41,694 (see graph below from our report). This average is just shy of the living wage threshold and falls right behind that of bachelor’s degree holders. Professional certifications are often less costly to obtain, with fewer coursework requirements and greater emphasis on on-the-job training. Yet the recent data shows very few high school graduates completing a certificate and our study found that only 2% of students actually attained a certificate within six years of graduation.
So what’s driving the overall bump in CCMR rates? Industry-based certifications (IBCs) and college preparatory courses have seen double-digit percentage point gains over the past four years.
IBCs help show that students have career skills, but right now, they aren’t always connected to actual coursework. The Texas Education Agency is working to make them more meaningful by reviewing and removing certifications that aren’t useful or challenging enough. In the next few years, students will need to take Career and Technical Education (CTE) courses related to their certification, making sure they get strong skills along the way.
College preparatory courses are offered to students who do not pass all of their STAAR End of Course (EOC) Exams. But the standard for these courses is not well defined. The growth in these courses suggests there is a large share of students in the class of 2023 who have not met high school standards across core subjects.
Dual credit completion is also growing, though at a smaller rate, and this growth points to promising efforts in several districts. Since 2019, nearly 1,000 more students have earned college while in high school by taking a course at a local college or university. These credits can be applied to bachelor’s or associate’s degrees. In particular, we see strong gains in Harmony Public Schools, Cypress-Fairbacks, Aldine, and Pasadena ISDs.
Improving Postsecondary Outcomes Requires Community-wide Support
So what does this new data mean for Houston’s public schools?
Start with strong learning: Students who take five or more advanced courses in high school have a much better chance of earning a living wage after graduation. But to reach that goal, we have to start early – building strong math and reading skills in elementary school, making sure all students have a fair shot at enrolling in advanced courses, and offering classes that truly prepare them for the future. . Through our partnership with the Gates Foundation, we’re helping several Houston school districts strengthen math achievement and increase Algebra I enrollment in middle school – an important stepping stone to advanced coursework.
Improve Career Pathways: More jobs now require professional certifications, which take fewer classes and costs less than college degrees. But not enough students are completing these programs, even though they can lead to well-paying careers. Schools, community colleges, and businesses need to work together to make sure students know about these options and have a clear path to earning these valuable credentials.
Make School Accountability Meaningful: A strong accountability system should incentivize schools and districts to give students real opportunities for long term success, specifically advanced coursework. While overall CCMR rates are improving, fewer students are reaching the highest college-readiness standards like passing AP or IB exams. We believe Texas should adjust its CCMR scoring to give more weight to students who complete these rigorous milestones, encouraging schools to prioritize true college and career preparation.
By focusing on these areas, we can make sure every student in Houston has a real shot at a bright future.
Data in the News
Here are some of the education data stories we’ve been keeping our eye on over the past few weeks.
After Gutting Staff, Education Department Remains Quiet on Future of NAEP Test | 74 Million: Last week the Department of Education announced layoffs affecting over 1,300 employees. Among the hardest hit departments was the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) which is responsible for administering national research projects including the National Assessments of Educational Progress (NAEP). NCES cuts leave only three staff members, down from about 100. The future of the assessment is uncertain, with speculation that the test will be eventually administered by the National Assessment Governing Board, another small arm of the Department of Education. NAEP assessments are the only national benchmark for student achievement and results help inform federal and state initiatives to advance public education, including a focus on literacy after the pandemic. Without sufficient capacity, experts are concerned about the federal government’s ability to administer the test and provide valid and meaningful analysis.
Houston ISD’s dual enrollment participation, passage rates increase sharply after state takeover | Houston Chronicle: In the past year, HISD has increased the number of students taking OnRamps courses from roughly 900 students to 3,500 students (a 372% increase). For students earning dual credits, that figure has jumped from roughly 500 to 2,300 (a 448% increase). The increase in OnRamps and dual credit enrollment was greatest for Black students in the district. (Note: This data is from 2024 and was obtained from the TEA’s Public Education Information Management System (PEIMS), which reports data for all students in the district. This is different from the source for our analysis which reports by graduation cohort and is lagged by a year).
Disparities in Houston School Campus Utilization | Baker Institute: Like many public school districts across the country, HISD faces enrollment declines. This study, from The Baker Institute at Rice University, analyzes how enrollment shifts have impacted campus utilization. The study found that more than 132 campuses have enrollment below 75% of the building’s capacity and another. Among those, 51 campuses had utilization rates less than 50%. Underutilized campuses are concentrated on the east side of the city and analyses of transfer data suggest that the growth of charter schools are a main source of enrollment declines. HISD also has a unique challenge of overenrollment, due in part to demand for magnet schools: 60 HISD’s campuses exceed 100% of the permanent building capacity, with 22 above 120%
