Across Texas and the country, large urban school districts are serving fewer students than they were a decade ago. Houston is no exception.
Since the 2016-17 school year, the peak of student enrollment in the Houston region, public schools here have lost roughly 38,000 students, a decline of about 5%. During that same period, Texas’ overall enrollment grew slightly, but across the state’s largest urban districts, enrollment fell by 16%. While Texas as a whole continues to grow, its urban school systems are shrinking. Understanding why matters for students, families, and communities.
What’s Driving Enrollment Decline
Enrollment decline is rarely the result of a single cause. Researchers and district leaders point to a mix of demographic and behavioral factors:
Fewer children are being born, particularly in urban areas. Families are relocating to suburban neighborhoods where housing is more affordable and schools may feel more accessible. Charter schools have expanded significantly, offering families more options within the public school system. And a growing number of families are actively choosing alternatives, from private schools to homeschooling, when their neighborhood school doesn’t feel like the right fit.
These trends are playing out across Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio alike.
What We’re Seeing in the Houston Region
Enrollment trends vary significantly across Houston-area districts. Looking at the decade between the 2016-17 and 2024-25 school years:
Aldine and Houston ISD each lost 18–19% of their students, a combined loss of nearly 53,000 kids. Alief and Pasadena ISDs each declined by 17%. Only three districts in the region grew during this period: Sheldon, Cypress-Fairbanks, and Klein ISDs. Public charter schools, by contrast, grew by 68% and now serve approximately 85,000 students in the Houston region.
Perhaps most telling: more than 103,000 Houston-area students are attending school outside their assigned district. Of those, six out of seven chose a public charter school.
When we combine declining birth rates, suburban migration, and active family choice, we get a clearer, though still incomplete, picture of why fewer students are enrolled in Houston’s traditional public schools.
A Closer Look at Houston ISD
Like many large districts in Texas, Houston ISD had been experiencing enrollment loss for several years before state intervention began. In more recent school years, those departures have accelerated, and campuses that became part of the New Education System (NES) model have seen steeper losses than their counterparts.
Since 2016-17, NES campuses declined by approximately 20%, while non-NES campuses lost about 11% of their students. That means NES campuses lost students at roughly 2.5 times the rate of non-NES campuses.
Many factors shape enrollment patterns, and attribution is complex. But this divergence suggests that some schools are feeling the effects of enrollment loss more acutely than others — and that families are paying attention.
Why Enrollment Declines Matter
In Texas, school funding is tied directly to enrollment. When students leave a district, funding for staff, programs, and facilities follows them out the door. The consequences ripple through entire school communities.
But this isn’t only a budget issue. Enrollment reflects trust. When families feel confident in their neighborhood school, when they believe it understands their children and meets their needs, they stay. When they don’t, they look for alternatives. And in a landscape with more alternatives than ever before, districts can no longer assume that proximity alone will keep families enrolled.
To respond meaningfully to these trends, district leaders must engage and retain families. That means planning for continued enrollment changes while maintaining high-quality learning environments, and treating families as true partners in their children’s education rather than passive recipients of it.
What matters most is understanding what’s happening and responding in ways that support students and families. Because no matter where a child goes to school, every student deserves a strong start and a clear path to a bright future.
Data source: 2024–25 Texas Academic Performance Reports (TAPR), Texas Education Agency
