“There are big changes with Texas legislation this year in terms of vouchers, funding, teacher certification requirements and potentially testing. I predict that we will see a decline in public school enrollment”
"The only lasting truth is change."
Change isn’t something that just happens to us. It’s something we shape, resist, adapt to, and ultimately write into being through thousands of small and large decisions. This fall, we asked Houston’s education community: What changes do you see coming for public schools in 2025-2026?
What we discovered was a community in the act of writing the future.
What we found:
The responses reveal five critical trends shaping Houston’s educational landscape:
- 73% of respondents identified budget constraints as the defining challenge ahead
- 53% predicted continued teacher shortages will drive staffing innovations
- 40% see AI integration as both opportunity and risk for student learning
- Declining enrollment emerged as the catalyst forcing strategic adaptations
- A return to fundamentals while embracing necessary technological change
The responses poured in from public school educators, policy researchers, community advocates, families navigating school choices, and elected officials wrestling policy. What emerged was a collective portrait of people who see clearly what’s coming and refuse to be passive observers of change.
“Education will get back to some of the fundamentals of teaching and learning,” wrote educator Jessica Ervin. Yet in the same survey, 40% of respondents identified AI integration as a central challenge ahead. This captures the essential tension: a community calling for stability while preparing for disruption, embracing fundamentals while navigating innovation.
Technology and Fundamentals: The False Choice
That tension between Jessica’s call for fundamentals and widespread concerns about AI integration reveals something important: these aren’t opposing forces. They’re two sides of the same challenge.
When 40% of respondents identify AI integration as a major issue ahead, the responses reveal practitioners trying to figure out how new tools fit into educational work that’s fundamentally about human relationships.
“Schools will increasingly rely on technology, including AI, to address budget cuts and teacher shortages, although there’s concern this might not benefit students,” one community member wrote.
This captures a crucial tension: AI as a cost-cutting measure versus AI as an educational tool. They’re not the same thing. That concern matters, and was echoed in quite a few of the submissions. It suggests a community that won’t accept technology for technology’s sake. Educators and families expressed wanting proof that new tools actually serve students better, reduce teacher burden, or strengthen learning in measurable ways. At the heart of it, many are asking: How do we use these tools to support the fundamentals rather than distract from them?
The Economics Are Forcing Innovation
“Decreased enrollment,” wrote Lucy Realyvasquez, a school administrator, when asked about her biggest prediction for public education this upcoming year.
Two words that capture a cascade of consequences. This prediction aligns with broader regional trends—Houston-area districts have seen enrollment declines of 3-7% over the past three years, translating to millions in lost funding. Seventy-three percent of respondents pointed to budget constraints as the defining challenge ahead. Fewer students means less funding means harder choices about what programs survive and what gets cut.
Responses reveal strategic adaptation. Districts are experimenting with technology because it’s necessary. Schools are exploring partnerships with community organizations because traditional models aren’t sustainable. Some are making bold investments in teacher pay, betting that higher compensation can solve staffing problems even when budgets are tight.
Policy analyst Chad Aldeman sees this playing out across the region: ” Schools face a lot of headwinds coming into the year, including a tighter economic environment and enrollment shifts. In response, I expect to see more stories about program cuts, layoff considerations, and school closures as the year goes on.”
The responses show conscious decisions about what education should look like when resources are constrained. The economics are forcing innovation.
The Human Challenge That Drives Everything
The shortages aren’t just in student enrollment. Teacher shortages show up in 53% of the survey responses. Educators and families predict that the daily reality of schools trying to function with key positions unfilled, experienced educators leaving, and remaining staff stretched beyond sustainable limits will be seen this school year.
“There will be a continued turnover of educators, teachers either leaving the profession or moving from district to district trying to find sustainability. Necessitating further raises to attract and retain quality educators,” one campus principal predicted.
This challenge hits hardest in schools serving our most vulnerable students. Districts with higher concentrations of low-income students already struggle more with teacher retention, and these predictions suggest the gap will widen without intentional intervention.
One educator from a Title I school shared a raw truth that captures the complexity: “Keeping educators at the schools with the harder populations. My Title 1 school struggles with multiple assaults on staff daily sometimes. We love these kids but need way more support to serve them.”
Embedded in this challenge is opportunity. Districts are being forced to reimagine what teaching careers can look like. Alternative certification programs. “Grow your own” pipelines. Creative scheduling that gives teachers more planning time. Technology that actually reduces workload instead of adding to it.
The most telling predictions came from those thinking beyond immediate fixes. Predictions framed around deeper questions: What makes teachers want to stay? How do we create conditions where good teachers can do their best work? These are questions about what we value and how we show it.
The Equity Stakes
What emerged clearly from our survey responses is that these changes won’t affect all students equally. The community members we heard from understand that budget cuts, teacher shortages, and technology gaps hit hardest in schools that already face the greatest challenges.
As one respondent noted with particular concern: “The autistic community, both kids and adults, will continue to be overlooked and defunded.” Another parent worried: “I believe we were all worried about the quality of education our kids are receiving and will it really prepare them for post high school.”
Districts that can offer competitive teacher salaries will attract talent while others struggle. Schools in wealthier communities will have more resources to supplement reduced programming. Students whose families can navigate school choice options will have different outcomes than those who cannot.
This reality drives the urgency behind the innovations and determination we’re seeing. As Good Reason Houston’s research consistently shows, every child deserves access to high-quality education regardless of zip code. The predictions we’re hearing reflect a community committed to that principle, even when—especially when—resources are tight.
What We’re Really Writing
Strip away the policy details and budget projections, and what emerges from these survey responses is a community of people who refuse to accept that external pressures should determine educational outcomes.
We see challenges clearly. Budget cuts, teacher shortages, political interference, demographic shifts, technological disruption. We’re minimizing none of it or pretending solutions are simple.
We’re also choosing action over paralysis.
Instead, we’re asking: Given these realities, how do we create the best possible educational experience for students? How do we preserve what matters most while adapting what needs to change?
The Path Forward: What Collective Wisdom Tells Us
Here’s what struck us most about the responses: despite the challenges, frustrations, and genuine fears people expressed, there was no giving up. There was fatigue, yes. Anger, absolutely. But also determination.
This stubborn determination shows up in concrete actions across our region. Teachers are staying late to tutor students whose support programs were cut. Parents are organizing to advocate for their schools. Administrators are finding creative partnerships to maintain arts and enrichment programs. Community organizations are stepping up to fill gaps in mental health support and college counseling.
Jessica Ervin’s call to “get back to some of the fundamentals of teaching, learning” isn’t about moving backward. It’s about remembering what we’re actually trying to accomplish amid all the noise.
When schools are clear about their core mission of helping students learn and grow, they’re better equipped to make sound decisions about new technologies, staffing models, budget priorities, and policy responses. The fundamentals Jessica is describing are about clarity of purpose in a time of rapid change.
Klein ISD Superintendent Dr. Jenny McGown captured the resilience we heard throughout the responses: “I predict that despite what happens in politics, we are still going to be on the ground making sure that our kids get a quality education. I predict that educators will do what we have always done and make it work, and make sure that when we stand in front of our children they are shielded from the noise.”
This determination is driving action. The same people worried enough to identify problems are engaged enough to work for solutions.
What We Predict Will Happen
Based on our collective insights, here’s what we see coming for Houston’s public education in 2025-2026:
Budget constraints will drive strategic innovation. Districts will make increasingly bold choices about resource allocation, cutting some programs while making significant investments in others. Expect to see more public-private partnerships, creative use of facilities, and technology adoption driven by necessity rather than preference.
Teacher compensation will become a competitive differentiator. Districts that can offer significantly higher pay will attract and retain talent, while others struggle with chronic staffing shortages. This will create wider disparities in educational quality across the region, and may miss the mark on addressing sustainability and quality of experience for teachers.
Schools will shift away from traditional human-centered support. Mental health, tutoring, and enrichment programs will increasingly rely on AI, paraprofessionals, and community partnerships rather than dedicated staff. While this addresses budget constraints, it raises concerns about students losing essential human relationships in their support systems.
“Fundamentals” will drive curriculum decisions. Expect increased focus on core academic skills, structured literacy approaches, and evidence-based math instruction. Districts will prioritize proven methods over innovative programs when budgets are tight.
Political pressures will accelerate district decisions. Voucher implementation and legislative changes will push some districts to make faster changes in programming, communication strategies, and community engagement than they might have otherwise.
The future we’re building may look different from the past, but it’s grounded in the same essential commitment: every student deserves excellent education, regardless of the challenges their schools face.
What This Means for Our Work
These predictions align with Good Reason Houston’s core mission: ensuring every child in Houston has access to high-quality schools. The community insights we’ve gathered reinforce what our research consistently shows—that bold action, strategic innovation, and unwavering commitment to equity are essential for transforming educational outcomes.
The challenges ahead are real, but so is the determination to meet them. Our role is to support the educators, families, and advocates who are writing Houston’s educational future through their daily choices and actions.
The year ahead will test Houston’s education community in ways we’re still discovering. But if these survey responses reveal anything, it’s that the people closest to schools are approaching these challenges with both realistic assessment and stubborn determination.
Change is indeed the only lasting truth. But in Houston, that change is being written by people who refuse to let external challenges define what’s possible for students.
What are you seeing in your community that others might not be talking about yet? Share your observations as we continue tracking these predictions throughout the year. Join us in supporting the educators and advocates who are shaping Houston’s educational future—because every prediction becomes reality through the choices we make together.
